The Storm Before the Calm by George Friedman

  1. America experiences a major political upheaval about every 80 years. The first upheaval happened in the 1860’s, about 80 years after the founding of the Republic. The second upheaval happened 80 years after that, in the 1940’s as America re-oriented towards being a global power. The third upheaval…will be in the 2020’s.
  2. America experiences a major social-economic upheaval about every 50 years. For example, the last upheaval peaked with Carter in the late 70’s leading to Reagan in in 1980’s. The one before that peaked with Hoover in the late 20’s leading to Roosevelt in the 1930’s. The next upheaval will start in the late 2020’s.
  3. The 2020’s will be rough. Very rough. According to Friedman, each upheaval whether political or socio-economic, entails much confusion, misunderstanding, and conflict. The 2020’s will be the first time in American history where both cycles fall in the same decade. Uh-oh. Which ever way events play out, it’s going to be very disruptive.
  4. The 2030’s will be…much better! Interestingly, the tumult of the 20’s doesn’t just lead to even more tumult in the 30’s but paves the way for a new order to things. It would seem inconceivable, but it would also seem impossible to conceive of the peace of the 1870’s with the conflict of the 1860's.



Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store
Antonius Tsai

Antonius Tsai


My work is in helping people connect to their greater selves and authentic purpose. (